Will Trump’s tariffs help Michigan? The answer may depend on who — and when — you ask.

SAGINAW COUNTY, MI — For the last few weeks, Micah DelVecchio’s stroll through Saginaw Valley State University’s business lab classrooms has offered a peek into the tumultuous state of the American economy.

The classes feature flashy Dow Jones index tickers that designate companies’ economic conditions via two colors: Green for a market upswing and red for a downturn.

DelVecchio, an associate professor of economics at SVSU, saw plenty of red circling those screens earlier this month. Then, a rally late last week injected some green onto the grid.

The public reaction to those markets, though, could be charted using a different color index, he said. Red, for Republicans who have faith President Donald Trump’s international trade policies will bolster American business in the long run. And blue, for Democratic voters who fear his conservative policies will erode the foundations of their finances.

“I can’t remember a time where politics has been so tied to market change,” DelVecchio said. “I think, no matter what happens, Republicans and Trump are going to claim victory, and Democrats are going to claim those policies harmed American well-being.”

For DelVecchio and other economic experts, there is no crystal ball that will forecast whether Trump’s economic policies will result in a red- or a green-index market ticker. Success or failure may not be definable on a macro level; one American market may thrive while another falters, with the distinguishing variable being the health of the U.S. trade relationship with the nations that deal in those respective markets.

So, what about the international markets tied to Michigan’s economy?

DelVecchio and other academics who teach economics are watching how Trump’s policies — his tariff plans, in particular — could impact the Michigan industries most invested in international trade. After all, many of those teachers’ students represent the future work forces of Michigan’s manufacturing or agricultural businesses, two industries that regularly exchange goods across borders.

Keeping track of those tariff plans and the market trajectory can be a challenge.

Beginning two weeks after he returned to the White House Jan. 20, Trump has rolled out a hodgepodge of tariff policies, only to roll back some days later.

On April 2, Trump declared trade deficits — when the U.S. buys more products from some countries than it sells — represented a national emergency, enabling him to enact tariffs without congressional approval. Trump called it “Liberation Day,” and it came complete with a tariff-outlining chart that raised the eyebrows of global economists and late-night comedy hosts alike.

After markets collapsed, Trump backed off some of those plans. Although high taxes have been left in place on imports from China, many of the other targeted tariffs were paused to allow time for negotiations with individual countries.

Like DelVecchio, Jeff Rightmer doesn’t pretend to know how Trump’s policies will impact American businesses and wallets by the end of the president’s term in four years. An assistant professor of teaching in global supply chain management at Wayne State University, Rightmer said the uncertainty the president’s policies create perhaps presents the most challenging obstacle for his administration to navigate.

“It seems like things change on a daily basis, and companies just can’t plan for that,” Rightmer said. “If we say, ‘OK, this is the policy, and this is the way it’s going to be,’ then I can plan for that. But when it starts going back and forth, it really has an effect on the companies, and then that’s going to trickle down into the workforce.”

Rightmer said tariffs work when the policy forces international trade partners to the negotiating tables with the U.S. In some cases, though, Trump’s tariff policies have alienated longtime trade allies, including Michigan’s neighbor, Canada.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney last month said Canada’s “old relationship” with the United States “is over.”

“It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner,” Carney said. “It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back. We will need to dramatically reduce our reliance on the United States. We will need to pivot our trade relationships elsewhere.”

Rightmer said he speaks regularly with an academic peer at a university in Windsor about the growing divide between the two nations.

“We were talking a week or so ago,” Rightmer said, “and he said, ‘The frustration there is, just tell me what you want. If you tell us what you want to negotiate on, we’ll negotiate.’ But that seems to be the problem: It’s a moving target.”

The shaky footing of that trade relationship threatens one of the key international partnerships on which Michigan commerce depends, he said.

“Especially here (in Michigan) and in the Midwest, you can really see how important that trade with Canada is,” Rightmer said. “I mean, that’s the only reason we’re building the Gordie Howe Bridge: We need that capacity to get things back and forth across the border.”

Eroding the channels of trade between the U.S. and Canada could prove especially problematic for the automotive industry in Michigan, he said. The academic is familiar with the business sector. Wayne State University resides in a corner of Michigan that also serves as global headquarters of General Motors, Ford and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler).

But “The Big Three″ aren’t the only auto companies in the state impacted by Trump’s tariff policies, Rightmer said.

“If you’re a smaller supplier, you could rapidly run into some cash flow problems, and that’s the problem that the auto industry especially is worried about,” he said.

The Trump administration seemed to acknowledge concerns surrounding the auto industry earlier this week when the president suggested he might pause tariff policies specifically tied to that market.

While such a move could buy automakers time to adjust, this policy reversal also builds upon the growing number of policy reversals that Rightmer and other experts say create a “moving target” and uncertainty in international markets.

Trump’s tariff policies with a much more distant nation — China — also could prove especially impactful on Michigan-based industries.

Despite rolling back his “Liberation Day” rates to a 10% universal tariff for most nations, Trump has maintained his policy includes a 145% levy against China, which trails only the U.S. on the list of nations with the largest Gross Domestic Product value.

That tariff could prove especially burdensome for farmers who benefit from a China market with a hefty demand for Michigan-grown products.

While Rightmer’s institution resides in Detroit, the heart of Michigan’s auto industry, DelVecchio works at an SVSU campus hidden partly from the view of passing motorists by cornfields that surround the Kochville Township-based university. Many of his students commute from rural mid-Michigan communities that produce goods to trade with China.

“I just spoke with a student whose family grows mung beans, and that’s just one example of an export to China,” DelVecchio said. “And then soybeans are another big product here in Michigan. Those sectors could be negatively affected if they’re targeted by China and people who we’re taking on in this trade war.”

For some Michigan farmers, though, the pains of such a trade war could be tolerable if Trump continues to pitch his economic policies as a long-term strategy with short-term setbacks, DelVecchio said.

Another factor that could drive the farming sector’s confidence in the president’s international trade policies: Many of those agricultural jobs reside in rural counties that helped Trump earn Michigan’s vote during the 2024 election, when the Republican campaigned in part on a promise to apply tariffs.

“The psychology of it really goes back to what your political views are,” DelVecchio said. “When I talk to people working in those agricultural sectors, a lot of them feel like this is going to take time and they’re willing to go through a painful adjustment process because they believe, in the long run, Trump will fix things.”